Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data

This paper compares the role of stochastic volatility versus changes in monetary policy rules in accounting for the time-varying volatility of U.S. aggregate data. Of special interest to us is understanding the sources of the great moderation of business cycle fluctuations that the U.S. economy experienced between 1984 and 2007. To explore this issue, we build a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule and we estimate it non-linearly using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. Methodologically, we show how to confront such a rich model with the data by exploiting the structure of the high-order approximation to the decision rules that characterize the equilibrium of the economy. Our main empirical findings are: 1) even after controlling for stochastic volatility (and there is a fair amount of it), there is overwhelming evidence of changes in monetary policy during the analyzed period; 2) however, these changes in monetary policy mattered little for the great moderation; 3) most of the great performance of the U.S. economy during the 1990s was a result of good shocks; and 4) the response of monetary policy to inflation under Burns, Miller, and Greenspan was similar, while it was much higher under Volcker.DSGE models, Stochastic volatility, Parameter drifting, Bayesian methods

Fortune or virtue: time-variant volatilities versus parameter drifting

This paper compares the role of stochastic volatility versus changes in monetary policy rules in accounting for the time-varying volatility of U.S. aggregate data. Of special interest to the authors is understanding the sources of the great moderation of business cycle fluctuations that the U.S. economy experienced between 1984 and 2007. To explore this issue, the authors build a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule and they estimate it non-linearly using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. Methodologically, the authors show how to confront such a rich model with the data by exploiting the structure of the high-order approximation to the decision rules that characterize the equilibrium of the economy. Their main empirical findings are: 1) even after controlling for stochastic volatility (and there is a fair amount of it), there is overwhelming evidence of changes in monetary policy during the analyzed period; 2) however, these changes in monetary policy mattered little for the great moderation; 3) most of the great performance of the U.S. economy during the 1990s was a result of good shocks; and 4) the response of monetary policy to inflation under Burns, Miller, and Greenspan was similar, while it was much higher under Volcker.Monetary policy ; Business cycles ; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) ; Econometric models

Reading the recent monetary history of the United States, 1959-2007

In this paper the authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the United States and to interpret, through this lens, the sources of the rise and fall of the Great Inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and of the Great Moderation of business cycle fluctuations between 1984 and 2007. Their main findings are that, while there is strong evidence of changes in monetary policy during Chairman Paul Volcker's tenure at the Federal Reserve, those changes contributed little to the Great Moderation. Instead, changes in the volatility of structural shocks account for most of it. Also, although the authors find that monetary policy was different under Volcker, they do not find much evidence of a big difference in monetary policy among the tenures of Chairmen Arthur Burns, G. William Miller, and Alan Greenspan. The difference in aggregate outcomes across these periods is attributed to the time-varying volatility of shocks. The history for inflation is more nuanced, as a more vigorous stand against it would have reduced inflation in the 1970s, but not completely eliminated it. In addition, they find that volatile shocks (especially those related to aggregate demand) were important contributors to the Great Inflation.Monetary policy - United States ; Economic conditions - United States

Supply-side policies and the zero lower bound

This paper examines how supply-side policies may play a role in fighting a low aggregate demand that traps an economy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates. Future increases in productivity or reductions in mark-ups triggered by supply-side policies generate a wealth effect that pulls current consumption and output up. Since the economy is at the ZLB, increases in the interest rates do not undo this wealth effect, as we will have in the case outside the ZLB. The authors illustrate this mechanism with a simple two-period New Keynesian model. They discuss possible objections to this set of policies and the relation of supply-side policies with more conventional monetary and fiscal policies.Supply-side economics ; Keynesian economics

Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007

In this paper we report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. We use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the U.S. and to interpret, through this lens, the sources of the rise and fall of the great American inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and of the great moderation of business cycle fluctuations between 1984 and 2007. Our main findings are that while there is strong evidence of changes in monetary policy during Volcker’s tenure at the Fed, those changes contributed little to the great moderation. Instead, changes in the volatility of structural shocks account for most of it. Also, while we find that monetary policy was different under Volcker, we do not find much evidence of a big difference in monetary policy among Burns, Miller, and Greenspan. The difference in aggregate outcomes across these periods is attributed to the time-varying volatility of shocks. The history for inflation is more nuanced, as a more vigorous stand against it would have reduced inflation in the 1970s, but not completely eliminated it. In addition, we find that volatile shocks (especially those related to aggregate demand) were important contributors to the great American inflation.DSGE models, Stochastic volatility, Parameter drifting, Bayesian methods.

Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound

This paper examines how supply-side policies may play a role in fighting a low aggregate demand that traps an economy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates. Future increases in productivity or reductions in mark-ups triggered by supply-side policies generate a wealth effect that pulls current consumption and output up. Since the economy is at the ZLB, increases in the interest rates do not undo this wealth effect, as we will have in the case outside the ZLB. We illustrate this mechanism with a simple two-period New Keynesian model. We discuss possible objections to this set of policies and the relation of supply-side policies with more conventional monetary and fiscal policies.

Reading the recent monetary history of the U.S., 1959-2007

The authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the U.S. and to interpret, through this lens, the sources of the rise and fall of the great American inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and of the great moderation of business cycle fluctuations between 1984 and 2007.Economic conditions - United States ; Business cycles - Econometric models ; Econometric models ; Monetary policy - United States

Población extranjera y política de inmigración en Andalucía

La inmigración extranjera en Andalucía ha crecido notablemente en los últimos años. Aún sin alcanzar los niveles de otras Comunidades, presenta áreas de gran concentración y una diversidad de problemáticas considerable. La respuesta política por parte del gobierno regional ha venido dada de la mano de los Planes Integrales de la Inmigración en Andalucía (2001-2004 y 2006-2009). Estos planes, nacidos poco después del conflicto de El Ejido, han supuesto un esfuerzo considerable de sistematización y coordinación de las actuaciones que, relacionadas con la inmigración, llevaban a cabo diferentes organismos. La creación de la Dirección General de Coordinación de Políticas Migratorias y su ubicación en la Consejería de Gobernación, en lugar de en la de Asuntos Sociales ha contribuido también a ese fin. El esfuerzo presupuestario del segundo plan ha sido considerablemente mayor, especialmente en campos como la Educación. Sin embargo, se echa de menos una mayor distinción entre medidas generales y medidas específicas relacionadas con la inmigración, así como una clara estrategia territorial que, en un espacio tan diverso como Andalucía, se antoja crucial.Foreign migration to Andalusia has undergone a remarkable increase during last years. The diverse andalusian territory contains areas with almost no presence of migrants, while others show high concentration of aliens with different problems. The political response to this has been given by the integral Plans for Immigration in Andalusia (2001-2004 y 2006-2009). These plans started after the ethnic conflict in El Ejido and have meant a considerable effort to give coherence and coordination to the actions taken by various organs of government. The Office for Coordination of Migration Policies has been created and placed in the Department of Interior, which contributes to give it a more powerful role. The second plan budget has notably increased, especially in fields like Education. Nevertheless, it suffers from lack of distinction between general and specific measures and from the absence of a territorial strategy, which should be crucial in such a diverse Community

Bayesian joint spatio-temporal analysis of multiple diseases

In this paper we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for the joint analysis of multiple diseases which includes specific and shared spatial and temporal effects. Dependence on shared terms is controlled by disease-specific weights so that their posterior distribution can be used to identify diseases with similar spatial and temporal patterns. The model proposed here has been used to study three different causes of death (oral cavity, esophagus and stomach cancer) in Spain at the province level. Shared and specific spatial and temporal effects have been estimated and mapped in order to study similarities and differences among these causes. Furthermore, estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo and the integrated nested Laplace approximation are compared.Peer Reviewe

A web 2.0 for science teaching and learning in upper high school by means of gamificación: Jedirojo Science

El método tradicional de enseñanza de las ciencias, en el que el alumno juega un papel de mero receptor de información, sigue teniendo un fuerte arraigo en el sistema educativo en muchos países, como España. Esta visión de la enseñanza ha quedado obsoleta con la aparición de las corrientes educativas fundamentadas en la gamificación y el uso de tecnologías digitales como la web 2.0. En consecuencia, los ejemplos de prácticas docentes refrendadas por investigaciones pueden favorecer que estas tecnologías se incorporen definitivamente a la educación formal. Asimismo, se hacen necesarias experiencias en las que se estudie si el interés del alumnado por los contenidos expuestos en la web puede potenciarse en un contexto que convierta la experiencia de aprendizaje en algo divertido y apetecible. En este trabajo se presenta una propuesta didáctica para la enseñanza de la biología en bachillerato desde una perspectiva lúdica mediante el desarrollo de una página web con la filosofía 2.0. Empleando elementos cinematográficos y del mundo del videojuego, la propuesta basada en la gamificación trata de explotar el reto y el compromiso del alumnado para mejorar su motivación en las disciplinas científicas. Con el objeto de fomentar la aplicación de estas metodologías se ha empleado parte de las tareas incluidas en la web para realizar una experiencia piloto, cuyos resultados cualitativos se muestran en este artículo.Traditional teaching methods of sciences, where students assume a passive role as mere recipients of knowledge, are still strongly established in many countries, as Spain. This perception of teaching became obsolete with the appearance of educational currents supporting gamification and the use of digital technologies as web 2.0. Consequently, teaching experiences supported by verified research can favor these technologies to be permanently adopted by formal education. It is likewise required to perform new studies to assess whether the interest of students for the web contents is increased when displayed in an attractive and playful context. In this paper we present an educative proposal to teach biology in upper secondary school from a ludic point of view by means of a web 2.0 development. Taking elements from cinema and videogame fields, this based on gamification proposal attempts to make use of challenge and engagement of students to improve their motivation for scientific disciplines. With the goal of encouraging the implementation of these methodologies a pilot scheme has been carried out using some of the activities displayed at the website, whose qualitative outcomes are shown in this article